ITPM Flash Ep20 – is a video series from the Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management (ITPM), founded by Anton Kreil, that provides market insights from the Institute’s senior trading mentors.

ITPM Flash Ep20 – Summary

The video delves into the current state of the bond market, shedding light on its unprecedented downturn, which has sent shockwaves through bond holders. Remarkably, ultra-long duration bonds are weathering drawdowns more severe than those endured during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). An intriguing twist lies in the surge of yields amidst a Federal Reserve pause, potentially foreshadowing further rate hikes, defying historical norms.

The video also underscores the pivotal role of fiscal spending in the US, contributing to a climate of uncertainty. The government’s spending levels urgently demand restraint to curtail market volatility. The Federal Reserve’s resounding “higher for longer” narrative raises concerns about elevated long-term neutral rates, casting a shadow over equity markets.

Traditionally, the Fed’s stringent financial conditions have paved the way for hard landings and economic recessions. Evident signals of a consumer slowdown emerge, despite the prevailing soft landing narrative. The video underscores that media and retail fixation on a soft landing often serves as a precursor to the harsh reality of a hard landing.

To navigate this tumultuous landscape, the video recommends maintaining a multifaceted portfolio of non-correlated trades. In the event of a hard landing scenario, sectors like consumer discretionary remain susceptible to substantial downturns. A suggested approach encompasses a strategic barbell strategy, fortified with insurance in both directions and astute mean reversion trades, including shorting the NASDAQ and adopting a bullish stance on TLT. Prudence is paramount, as bridging the gap may prove to be a protracted endeavor.


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About me

The Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management (ITPM), founded by ex-Goldman Sachs trader Anton Kreil, helped me on my journey to become a profitable retail trader

Review of ITPM Courses

The courses of the Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management helped me massively to become a profitable retail trader. I genuinely believe that ITPM provides the best trading education on the market – but not everything is perfect. Find out more in my reviews

Results of my Mentoring with Anton Kreil

In September 2022 Anton Kreil asked me and another one of his former mentees, if we want to do a webinar with him. After the Thailand class in April 2022 and the following mentoring with Anton from Mai to July 2022 I thought it was great opportunity to show what I have learned and how I have progressed

ITPM Thailand Mentoring

After completing my first ITPM Course, the PTM 1.0 (the predecessor of the PTM 2.0), I knew I want to do a mentoring. After a thorough analysis I decided to attended the April 2022 Thailand mentoring class

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