ITPM Flash Ep27 is a video series from the Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management (ITPM), founded by Anton Kreil, that provides market insights from the Institute’s senior trading mentors.

ITPM Flash Ep27 – Summary

  • Market Overview:
    • Recent year-end rally fueled by expectations of a soft landing, falling inflation, and anticipated 2024 rate cuts.
    • Substantial inflow of $70 billion into equities in December, indicating robust confidence in the market’s pivot.
  • Earnings Caution:
    • Approach to Q4 earnings season with caution as expectations have dwindled from up eight to up two.
    • Despite the market’s positive momentum, earnings have not followed suit, raising concerns about the market’s pricing dynamics.
  • Stock Performance:
    • Major stocks like Nike, FedEx, and Mobileye experienced significant declines, challenging the prevailing optimistic market sentiment.
    • The discrepancy between market behavior and individual stock performance raises questions about the reliability of current market indicators.
  • Risks and Cautionary Signals:
    • Warning signs observed in the market’s response to lower yields; potential contraction in ISM Services adds another layer of risk.
    • Examination of discounting trends in key categories reveals greater discounts this Christmas season compared to the previous year, questioning the sustainability of profit margins.
  • Labor Market Dynamics:
    • Normalization of average hours worked per week raises concerns about potential workforce reduction if demand falls below expectations.
    • Decreasing response rates from companies submitting data to the Bureau of Labor Statistics prompt doubts about the reliability of current labor market data.

ITPM Flash Ep27 – Conclusion

  • Despite the market’s optimism, the speaker maintains a cautious stance due to uncertainties in the macroeconomic landscape.
  • The speaker’s portfolio is only 75% invested, reflecting a prudent approach amid unclear market conditions.
  • Advice includes avoiding forced trades, maintaining flexibility, and careful stock selection in light of the uncertainties.
  • Traders are urged to stay informed and adapt strategies during the upcoming earnings season, acknowledging the unpredictability in the market’s current state.

Disclaimer

Read the disclaimer here >>>

About me

The Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management (ITPM), founded by ex-Goldman Sachs trader Anton Kreil, helped me on my journey to become a profitable retail trader

Review of ITPM Courses

The courses of the Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management helped me massively to become a profitable retail trader. I genuinely believe that ITPM provides the best trading education on the market – but not everything is perfect. Find out more in my reviews

Results of my Mentoring with Anton Kreil

In September 2022 Anton Kreil asked me and another one of his former mentees, if we want to do a webinar with him. After the Thailand class in April 2022 and the following mentoring with Anton from Mai to July 2022 I thought it was great opportunity to show what I have learned and how I have progressed

ITPM Thailand Mentoring

After completing my first ITPM Course, the PTM 1.0 (the predecessor of the PTM 2.0), I knew I want to do a mentoring. After a thorough analysis I decided to attended the April 2022 Thailand mentoring class

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