ITPM Flash Ep28 is a video series from the Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management (ITPM), founded by Anton Kreil, that provides market insights from the Institute’s senior trading mentors.

ITPM Flash Ep28 – Summary

In this episode Anthony Iser talks about the what, the why and the how and what’s going an with FED governor Waller and the market. Waller held a speech on Tuesday 16th January indicating that FED is within “striking distance” of their 2% inflation target. At the same time he said the FED should not rush to cut rates until it’s clear that inflation stays lower. The US 10y Government Bonds went up 2.7% on that day, indicating that the market is pricing in “higher rates for longer”.

  • A soft landing is very much consensus
    • 79% of the Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey participants see a “Soft or No Landing” – the highest for a long time
    • Only 17% see a “Hard Landing”
  • Consensus of earnings are getting upgraded
    • after a few quarters of negative EPS or very low growth EPS estimates are getting upgraded
    • With the ISMs most likely bottomes, this could further help earnings growth
  • All eyes on the FED
    • BUT it all depends on the FEDs actions. If the FED keeps rates too high for too long it will break something in the economy
    • Anthony shows a chart indicating that on average the S&P500 declines 23.5% after the first rate cut and bottoms on average after 195 days on a hard landing
  • How can we – as traders – play this?
    • Anthony states that he likes to be net long at the moment (only by a small amount). Historically the time the FED pauses rate hikes is very bullish for markets
    • The environment is good for the economy, unemployment is low, and earnings are ticking up
    • There will be announcements that the FED “has done it”
    • We need more data as traders and then be nimble and fast to change our view!
  • Have a strong fundamentally driven idea generation process!
    • As traders we need to have a strong idea generation process! These ideas will be our firing power, when time is right!
    • Combined with good risk management we can stay market agnostic at times like this

ITPM Flash Ep28 – Conclusion

  • FED Governor Waller shook up markets a little, indicating there will be less rate hikes
  • Market consensus is a “Soft or No Landing”
  • FED actions are most important to watch
  • Anthony Iser is slightly net long at the moment, but ready to change his market view anytime!
  • Work on your fundamentally driven idea generation process to fill up your watchlist and pull the trigger when needed!


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About me

The Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management (ITPM), founded by ex-Goldman Sachs trader Anton Kreil, helped me on my journey to become a profitable retail trader

Review of ITPM Courses

The courses of the Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management helped me massively to become a profitable retail trader. I genuinely believe that ITPM provides the best trading education on the market – but not everything is perfect. Find out more in my reviews

Results of my Mentoring with Anton Kreil

In September 2022 Anton Kreil asked me and another one of his former mentees, if we want to do a webinar with him. After the Thailand class in April 2022 and the following mentoring with Anton from Mai to July 2022 I thought it was great opportunity to show what I have learned and how I have progressed

ITPM Thailand Mentoring

After completing my first ITPM Course, the PTM 1.0 (the predecessor of the PTM 2.0), I knew I want to do a mentoring. After a thorough analysis I decided to attended the April 2022 Thailand mentoring class

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