ITPM Flash Ep30 is a video series from the Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management (ITPM), founded by Anton Kreil, that provides market insights from the Institute’s senior trading mentors.

ITPM Flash Ep30 – Summary

In this episode ITPM senior trading mentor Raj Malhotra talks about the continuation of the recent rally and how it would “kill the bears”.

  • The episode was filmed one day after the FOMC meeting (31st January 2024)
  • In the meeting FED chair J. Powell strongly indicated that rate cuts in March are off the table which half of market participants expected
  • During the speech market and bonds sold off together
  • If we take a look at the probabilities, one week ago the market predicted a 46.2% chance for a 25bps cut in March
  • As of today (2nd March) the market reduced the probability to around 20%
FED rates

Was the 2022 S&P 500 correction normal?

  • Raj discusses a table from the BofA Global Research and Bloomberg which shows that the correction from Jan-22 to Oct-22, were S&P was down -27.54% and lasted 9 month is in line with historc corrections (median 12 month and -28.80%)
  • The following recovery, from Oct-22 to Jan-24 of 38.01% which lasted 24 month is also in line with historic recoveries (median 24 month and +40.47%)
  • Raj thinks there is a real probability that this rally continues, at least in short term (maybe end of Q1) which will rip the face off the bears
  • When FOMO (fear of missing out) sets in and retail is chasing the rally, it is time to get out!
  • He further thinks that big tech won’t outperform small and mid cap names. Raj focsues on sectors that have underperformed, like financials, cons. discretionary, industrials, …
    • Note: while writing this META reported really strong numbers and upgraded their guidance (Link)
  • Raj shares some potential trade ideas, like GM, CLF or GRPN – Please read the disclaimer at the end!
    • This post is just for information purpose! You’re Only Responsible for your your Money into any trading, stocks or any other form of investment. So be Wise before investing your “Hard-earn money” into any form of Investments.

ITPM Flash Ep30 – Conclusion

Raj Malhotra thinks the recent rally could be sustained at least in short term. Be ready to change your market view quickly, probably when retail trader FOMO sets in! He further thinks small and mid-cap stocks could outperform big tech names.

Disclaimer

Read the disclaimer here >>>

About me

The Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management (ITPM), founded by ex-Goldman Sachs trader Anton Kreil, helped me on my journey to become a profitable retail trader

Review of ITPM Courses

The courses of the Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management helped me massively to become a profitable retail trader. I genuinely believe that ITPM provides the best trading education on the market – but not everything is perfect. Find out more in my reviews

Results of my Mentoring with Anton Kreil

In September 2022 Anton Kreil asked me and another one of his former mentees, if we want to do a webinar with him. After the Thailand class in April 2022 and the following mentoring with Anton from Mai to July 2022 I thought it was great opportunity to show what I have learned and how I have progressed

ITPM Thailand Mentoring

After completing my first ITPM Course, the PTM 1.0 (the predecessor of the PTM 2.0), I knew I want to do a mentoring. After a thorough analysis I decided to attended the April 2022 Thailand mentoring class

0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments