ITPM Flash Ep32 is a video series from the Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management (ITPM), founded by Anton Kreil, that provides market insights from the Institute’s senior trading mentors.

ITPM Flash Ep32 – Summary

In this episode of ITPM flash Ben Berggreen presents his take and view of the markets. There have been some great moves in large cap tech, semiconducters and AI or network oriented companies so far in 2024.

The CPI print on Tuesday 13th Feb has shaken the market a bit, although it came in only slightly higher than consensus! Market rebounded the next day nontheless.

CPI
Source: tradingeconomics.com

Looking at the largest companies of the S&P500, they have performed quite well year-to-date (YTD):

image 1

Ben suggests that there have been a lot of “perma bears” in the market. A lot of “so called experts” talked and predicted a recession, which has not happened yet, while major indices pushed into new all time highs! Clearly we are in a bull market and there is no reason that market suddenly turns.

Macro Data

image 2

Ben talks about macro data. Non-Farm Payrolls of December ’23 and January ’24 came in much higher than consensus. The labor market is tightening (more people are working) which is inflationary. Berggreen suggests that because of this, last year the market would have sold off. Because the economy picked up steam, market rallied and viewed it as a bullish sign.

Retail sales numbers were also better than expected – the consumer still looks strong!

GDP for Q4, which is backwards looking, also came in better than expected!

image 3

The ISMs are also picking up. Manufacturing is still in contracting territory but near 50, ISM Services and the composite PMI are already above 50!

ITPM Flash Ep32 – Conclusion

Ben suggests that it shouldn’t have been a surprise that the FED pushed back their rate cuts further out. The macro picture looks quite strong and GDP is positiv – so the economy is growing. The US is not in a “stagflation” (inflation + no economic growth) territory like Europe.

Regarding the market, Ben says that it is a stockpickers market – not every stock is rising, some are performing good, some are performing bad!

Disclaimer

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About me

The Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management (ITPM), founded by ex-Goldman Sachs trader Anton Kreil, helped me on my journey to become a profitable retail trader

Review of ITPM Courses

The courses of the Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management helped me massively to become a profitable retail trader. I genuinely believe that ITPM provides the best trading education on the market – but not everything is perfect. Find out more in my reviews

Results of my Mentoring with Anton Kreil

In September 2022 Anton Kreil asked me and another one of his former mentees, if we want to do a webinar with him. After the Thailand class in April 2022 and the following mentoring with Anton from Mai to July 2022 I thought it was great opportunity to show what I have learned and how I have progressed

ITPM Thailand Mentoring

After completing my first ITPM Course, the PTM 1.0 (the predecessor of the PTM 2.0), I knew I want to do a mentoring. After a thorough analysis I decided to attended the April 2022 Thailand mentoring class

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