ITPM Flash is a video series from the Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management (ITPM), founded by Anton Kreil, that provides market insights from the Institute’s senior trading mentors.

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This blog post is for informational purpose only and no investment advice. Always do your own research! Read the disclaimer here >>>

ITPM Flash Ep41 – Summary

In this episode senior trading mentor Raj Malhotra is taking about “higher for longer” which is the narrative regarding the FED interest rates.

In the beginning of the year market was expecting 5-6 rate cuts when Raj stated in various Flash videos that he thinks that is too aggressive (unless we get a recession or economic slowdown). The economy looks strong!

Interest rates (10y yield) increased quite a lot in the last few weeks while S&P holding up quite good!

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From ITPM’s Flash Youtube Video
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From ITPM’s Flash Youtube Video

Normally with rates that high S&P tends to go down (negative correlation) but as we see, it is rather strong which is surprising! Another pair with strong a strong correlation is “gold” and “bonds”. The divergence is really surprising.

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From ITPM’s Flash Youtube Video

Another surprising development is gold outperforming equities. Usually this happens when there is a “risk off” environment and equities is selling off hard. But the last few month’ it was definitely a “risk on” environment. Why is there a global gold rush?

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From ITPM’s Flash Youtube Video

I personally think gold is in a “super cycle”. When looking at the chart, the recent all time high from September 2011 was left behind for the first time in July 2020. After a consolidation phase of 3-4 years, gold finally broke out in March 2024 with “blue sky ahead”. Paired with some uncertainty in the world (e.g. Chinas economy, middle east tension, etc.) it makes sense for gold to increase further.

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“GOLD” Price

Raj’s take on TECH

Raj thinks that broader tech won’t outperform in 2024 as it did in 2023. The big names, like NVDA, TSLA, AAPL are not looking at healthy as they were a few month’ ago. Raj is looking at finding the next “CISCO’s”, which stock price hasn’t recovered the all time highs from the dotcom bubble!

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From ITPM’s Flash Youtube Video

One name he is interested in is Adobe (ADBE) which looks like a “fake AI”. They are telling customers / investors that they are using AI but how? Is it part of photoshop or other products yet? It looks like as market is already realizing this.

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From ITPM’s Flash Youtube Video

ITPM Flash Ep41 – Conclusion

In the beginning of the year, market was expecting 5-6 rate cuts when the FED assumed 3. Now it has shifted, because inflation is stickier so the market also assumes 3 rate cuts. The sentiment can change rather quickly, when something changes in the economy (e.g. inflation coming down).

Raj thinks that broader tech won’t outperform in 2024 and that there are a lot of “fake AI” companies out there that are promising the usage of AI in their products but don’t have a clear path how to monetize it.

About me

The Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management (ITPM), founded by ex-Goldman Sachs trader Anton Kreil, helped me on my journey to become a profitable retail trader

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Review of ITPM Courses

The courses of the Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management helped me massively to become a profitable retail trader. I genuinely believe that ITPM provides the best trading education on the market – but not everything is perfect. Find out more in my reviews

Results of my Mentoring with Anton Kreil

In September 2022 Anton Kreil asked me and another one of his former mentees, if we want to do a webinar with him. After the Thailand class in April 2022 and the following mentoring with Anton from Mai to July 2022 I thought it was great opportunity to show what I have learned and how I have progressed

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ITPM Thailand Mentoring

After completing my first ITPM Course, the PTM 1.0 (the predecessor of the PTM 2.0), I knew I want to do a mentoring. After a thorough analysis I decided to attended the April 2022 Thailand mentoring class

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